Friday, April 24, 2009

Chicago Residential Real Estate Market News and Reports

A sign of recovery? If you have to ask ‘have we recovered yet’ chances are we have not. However, by the time we know we have recovered we will have been recovered for some time. Remember we didn’t diagnose the recession until three quarters later.

Warren Buffet says, “If you wait for the robins, Spring will be over”. In my opinion, the best opportunities come at the bottom of the market cycle when depression and worry are at their peak. I’d say we are pretty close to that now.

The market is correcting itself in a healthy way. When prices inflate beyond a normal appreciation (~5% annually) the market requires corrections and that is what is happening now. Correction means opportunity. Look at the graph below and it spotlights the need for this correction (figures are national).

Once local indicator of housing pricing and recovery is to measure the absorption rate. In a healthy balanced market we could expect five to six months supply of units on the market (if no new inventory came on the market that is how long it would take to sell the current housing stock). In most areas we are well into double digit absorption rates. In many areas we are into years to absorb the current supply!

That’s the Chicago buzz for now.

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