The Future of Home Designs

What sort of lessons can a so-called "concept" house teach us?

At the International Builders Show, the country's largest trade event for the housing industry, it's hard to tell -- at least when it comes to the two major concept houses debuting at the Orlando, Fla., event.

Co-sponsored by Builder magazine and the National Council of the Housing Industry/Supplier 100, a building products manufacturing group, the two houses sit side-by-side in downtown Orlando and showcase what's trendy in both new and remodeled homes. The sponsors and the local builders who produced them say that the houses are meant to be showcases of new products and building techniques. Visiting builders are encouraged to try building these homes in their own markets.

Both of these houses are so fantastical, and their stories so idiosyncratic, that it's hard to know what lessons can be taken away. In fact, after touring them, I was left with more questions than answers.

Take, for instance, their price tags. The Renewed American Home -- a remodel of a 1909 bungalow -- is currently on the market for $2.9 million, while the New American Home is for sale at $3.15

The remodel of the 1909 bungalow -- on the market for $2.9 million.million. Both houses were constructed with hundreds of thousands of dollars of donated materials, fixtures and appliances, so their prices don't reflect their true market value. How is a builder supposed to figure out how to reproduce a look if he doesn't know what it costs?
Then there's the question of questionable design. The New American Home, a blend of Craftsman and urban-chic styling, is glitzy, with metallic glass tiles, walls that slide on tracks, and steel-cable stair railings. But the floor plan is puzzling: The living room and dining room are on the third floor, the master suite is on the second, and the two secondary bedrooms, office, home theater, wet bar and laundry are on the first (thank goodness there's an elevator). Why is this inverted plan better than a more traditional one? Would anyone want to drag groceries up three floors to the kitchen or have an office next to a theater? And who really wants to take a shower in a glass-walled room overlooking an open balcony, directly facing the windows of the building across the street?

And finally, there's the question of originality -- or lack thereof. The 1909 bungalow was moved to a lot two doors down from its original spot to make room for the New American Home. The bungalow's space was expanded from 2,460 to 5,439 square feet, and its interior was gutted to make room for a wider staircase, wheelchair-accessible bath, new staircase and other features. Older materials were replaced with new: engineered wood for the floors, solid surfacing for the countertops, laminate for the cabinetry. Can such a thoroughly revised house really be called "renewed?" And if it was in such bad shape to begin with, and not worth preserving for its historical or architectural significance, why not just tear it down and start afresh?
Questions, questions: And I always thought the point of show houses was to provide answers.

-- June Fletcher is a staff reporter at The Wall Street Journal and the author of "House Poor" (Harper Collins, 2005).

Rates Up a Bit Last Night

30-year fixed rate at 5.8%; 10-year Treasury yield at 4.78%

Monday, February 12, 2007 Inman News

Long-term mortgage interest rates moved higher Friday, and the benchmark 10-year Treasury bond yield climbed to 4.78 percent.
The 30-year fixed-rate average rose to 5.8 percent, and the 15-year fixed rate inched up to 5.58 percent. The 1-year adjustable held at 5.38 percent.
The 30-year Treasury bond yield increased to 4.86 percent.
Rates are current as of 7:15 p.m. Eastern Standard Time.
Mortgage rate figures are according to Bankrate.com, which publishes nightly averages based on its survey of 4,000 banks in 50 states. Points on these mortgages range from zero to 3.5.
In other economic news, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 56.8 points, or 0.45 percent, finishing at 12,580.83. The Nasdaq was down 28.85 points, or 1.16 percent, closing at 2,459.82.
Stock and bond figures are current as of 7:30 p.m. Eastern Standard Time.

Consumer Economic Confidence in Chicagoland Improves Significantly

Chicagoland Chamber Survey Reports Economic Confidence Higher in Chicagoland Than Nation

The economic confidence of consumers in Chicagoland rose significantly during the fourth quarter of 2006, according to the Rasmussen Consumer Index for the region released today by the Chicagoland Chamber of Commerce. The quarterly reading stood at 121.2 at the end of December, a more than 12-point gain from 109.1 reported at the end of September. And, for the first time, Chicagoland residents were more optimistic about the economy than consumers nationally. The national Rasmussen Consumer Index for the same period is 117.7

Here is the full story

Chicago HOMEBUZZ Market Report

Hello Everyone and Happy New Year!

Here is our market report for the 4th quarter of 2006 for single family, condos, townhomes and multi-unit residential properties in our mailing list sorted by zip code. This market report podcast (click on title to listen or go here: http://www.rememberjim.com/chb/4Q06podcast.mp4) will show the huge increase in sales volume compared to 3rd quarter, 2006. With a few exceptions the zip code neighborhoods were up and in some case up BIG. The overall increase from the 3rd to 4th quarter was over 35.5% in total sales going from $2,118,059,477 in the third quarter to $3,284,127,045 in the fourth quarter of 2006.

Almost all of the neighborhoods in our report showed an increase in sales volume with a few exceptions including the Lakeview 60657 multi-unit sales which dropped 68.54% in the fourth quarter down from over $32 million in sales to just over $19 million in the fourth quarter. The Loops 60605 zip code area saw a HUGE 73.72% increase from $42 million to almost $163 million for attached dwellings with 535 units sold with an average market time of only 29 days and a median sales price of $241,000.

This is the kind of information you will find in the report and in our audio podcast. This podcast is available at our website at www.REMEMBERJIM.com or at www.CHICAGOHOMEBUZZ.com. It can also be found at iTunes where you can subscribe and automatically have it downloaded to your computer or ipod or you can subscribe to our RSS feed also available on these sites.

Thanks for your interest and have a great new year!

Housing Possibly on the Rebounds

Housing: The Best Indicators Of A Rebound Has the home market hit bottom? That is the key question for the U.S. economy in 2007. According to some housing indicators, there is some light at the end of the tunnel for homebuilders, but that cautious optimism comes with caveats. To get the most reliable signal that the housing recession is over, keep an eye on the average monthly supply of new homes for sale and the average mortgage rate each quarter. Analysis by Goldman Sachs U.S. economist Edward McKelvey of eight pieces of housing data widely used as leading indicators of the housing cycle showed those two series are better than quarterly averages of new and existing home sales, housing starts, mortgage applications, housing affordability, and homebuilder confidence.In housing market upturns, all eight indicators do a good job of forecasting market peaks by two to five quarters. However, "a contraction is swifter and more cathartic," says McKelvey. That places a premium on indicators that give a more consistent signal.The monthly supply of homes--a ratio of new home inventories and home sales--has peaked one quarter before residential investment bottomed every time since 1961. Mortgage rates are nearly as consistent over that same period and have a similar lead time.The supply of new homes for sale in the fourth quarter should decline after a November reading of 6.3 months, from 6.7 in October and the recent peak of 7.2 months last July. Mortgage rates also fell in both the third and fourth quarters of 2006.But homebuilders are not out of the woods yet. The Census Bureau doesn't track cancellations, which stood around 7% of total sales contracts in 2006, vs. less than 4% in 2005, according to the National Association of Home Builders. As a result, reported sales are too high, inventories are too low, and changes in the monthly supply may be skewed. Investors also expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in 2007. If the Fed raises rates, or even stands pat, mortgage rates are likely to rise, putting more stress on builders