Chicago May Have Hit Bottom

Forbes top ten cities most likely to have not hit bottom on pricing declines. Florida takes 4 out of the top 5 and only New York in the east. Others in South and West.

Orlando
Miami
Jacksonville, Fla.
Tampa
Los Angeles
Phoenix
Las Vegas
Oakland, Calif.
San Diego
New York

As Warren Buffet has been quoted as saying, "If you wait for the robins, Spring will be over". Yet another sign you may want to consider buying in this awesome opportunity we have in Chicago

Lakeview (Chicago) Condos & Townhomes Chicago Home Buzz

Total condos and townhomes units sold in Chicago's Lakeview neighborhood were down 37% with 245 units sold in the fourth quarter, 2008 compared with 391 units sold in the fourth quarter, 2007. The median sales prices were down 9% to $315.000 from $347,000 in 2007 4Q and the average condo and townhome prices were down 36% in 2008 to $241,592 compared with $376,131 in 2007. Average market time was up 9% to 104 days.

Listen to the local professionals and look at the real numbers when trying to make sense of today's real estate market and your local micro-real estate economy. Even these numbers cannot be read on face value. Drill downs are required!


For more information and a Chicago Home Buzz market report visitwww.ChicagoHomeBuzz.com where this data will be available soon.

Jim

Chicago's Lincoln Park Condo & Townhome Buzz

Total condos and townhomes units sold in Chicago's Lincoln Park neighborhood were down 41% with 128 units sold in the fourth quarter compared with 218 units sold in 2007 (4Q). The median sales prices were slightly down 1% to $427,100 (from $432,500 in 2007 4Q) and the average condo and townhome prices were down 7% in 2008 to $443,146 compared with $478,738 in 2007. Average market time was up 10% to 115 days.

Listen to the local professionals and look at the real numbers when trying to make sense and have an understanding of your local real estate economy. Even these numbers cannot be read on face value. Drill downs are required!



For more information and a Chicago Home Buzz market report visitwww.ChicagoHomeBuzz.com where this data will be available soon.


Jim

Gold Coast Old Town (Chicago) Market Report Fall, 2008

Chicago Home Buzz Market ReportMarket Snapshot of Gold Coast/Old Town (Chicago) condos for Fall Quarter, 2008 ChicagoHomeBuzz.com

The total number of Lincoln Park , Chicago condos sold for the third quarter, 2008 was 614 units compared with 846 units in 2007 down 27% from the previous year and down 10% since 2003.

The median sales prices of Gold Coast/Old Town (Chicago) condos for the same quarter was $397,000 compared with $377,000 in 2007 up 5% from the previous year and up 23% since 2003.

The average sales price of Gold Coast/Old Town (Chicago) condos for the same quarter was $540,821 compared with $526,148 in 2007 up 3% from the previous year and up 38% since 2003. Note the disparity between median and average prices showing the skewed effect the higher priced Gold COast condos has on the average price figures.

The average market time of Gold Coast/Old Town (Chicago) condos for the same quarter was 144 days compared with 119 days in 2007 up 21% from the previous year and up 129% since 2003.

For a full neighborhood and city wide report visit www.ChicagoHomeBuzz.com

Lincoln Park Single-family homes Fall, 2008

Market Snapshot of Lincoln Park (Chicago) single-family homes for Fall Quarter, 2008 ChicagoHomeBuzz.com

The total number of Lincoln Park , Chicago single-family homes sold for the third quarter, 2008 was 47 units compared with 53 units in 2007 down 11% from the previous year and down 10% since 2003.

The median sales prices of Lincoln Park , Chicago single-family homes for the same quarter was $1,300,000 compared with $1,425,000 in 2007 down 9% from the previous year and up 17% since 2003.

The average sales price of Lincoln Park , Chicago single-family homes for the same quarter was $1,528,101 compared with $1,719,981 in 2007 down 11% from the previous year and up 31% since 2003.

The average market time of Lincoln Park , Chicago single-family homes for the same quarter was 163 days compared with 174 days in 2007 down 6% from the previous year and up 159% since 2003.

For a full neighborhood and city wide report visit www.ChicagoHomeBuzz.com

Lincoln Park Condo Pricing Report Fall, 2008

Market Snapshot of Lincoln Park (Chicago) Condos for Fall Quarter, 2008 ChicagoHomeBuzz.com

The total number of Lincoln Park , Chicago condos sold for the third quarter, 2008 was 309 units compared with 295 units in 2007 up 30% from the previous year but down 30% since 2003.

The median sales prices of Lincoln Park , Chicago condos for the same quarter was $412,000 compared with $430,750 in 2007 down 4% from the previous year and up 17% since 2003.

The average sales price of Lincoln Park , Chicago condos for the same quarter was $465,037 compared with $458,382 in 2007 down 1% from the previous year and up 21% since 2003.

The average market time of Lincoln Park , Chicago condos for the same quarter was 101 days compared with 94 days in 2007 up 7% from the previous year and up 87% since 2003.

For a full neighborhood and city wide report visit www.ChicagoHomeBuzz.com

Market Snapshot of Lakeview Single-family Homes Fall Quarter, 2008

Market Snapshot of Lakeview (Chicago) Fall Quarter, 2008 ChicagoHomeBuzz.com

The total number of Lakeview, Chicago single-family homes sold for the third quarter, 2008 was 30 units compared with 42 units in 2007 down 29% from the previous year and and down 35% since 2003.

The median sales prices of Lakeview, Chicago single-family homes for the same quarter was $1,200,000 compared with $1,041,250 in 2007 up 15% from the previous year and up 64% since 2003.

The average sales price of Lakeview, Chicago single-family homes for the same quarter was $1.276,563 compared with $1.129,197 in 2007 up 13% from the previous year and up 51% since 2003.

The average market time of Lakeview, Chicago single-family homes for the same quarter was 169 days compared with 154 days in 2007 up 10% from the previous year and up 213% since 2003.

For a full neighborhood and city wide report visit www.ChicagoHomeBuzz.com

Chicago Home Sales Activity for the Third Quarter, 2008: The Chicago Home Buzz

Beware of summaries. They are for losers. Beware of the pessimist or the optimist. Look for the micro-economist in your neighborhood. This is an historic time in our national economy and it really is incredible to watch since it is directly affecting each and every one of us. General summaries and market data are for losers and we frown on them. Why? Real estate operates in a local economy. Block by block, street by street, subdivision by subdivision. One street could be booming and the next street busting. Beware the pessimists or the optimists. Look for the micro-economist in your neighborhood. Look at our median sales summary in our Chicago Home Buzz report: Median prices up almost 25%! Wow! This economy is doing great! Read on…summary points of view are worthless such as our summary used as an example of skewed data. The media in their infinitely diluted viewpoint continues to under report (or over sensationalize) the actual state of the real estate market. To their defense, it is impossible to write detailed reporting on the market because the real estate market operates on both a macro and micro level. Even when you get down to what you think is a micro-level, Gold Coast goes and screws everything up! The real estate macro-economic condition is obviously just as important to each of us as what is happening in our back yards as evident by the turmoil in the markets. I’ll refrain from getting into details about why we are where we are but needless to say “A” grade securities which included junk, sub-prime mortgages (mortgages given to people who had no right getting a loan) were traded on Wall Street and across the global market at a hugely profitable speed and no regulator or moderator or Hedge Fund manager wanted that gravy train to stop. Trillions were made just as trillions were just lost in these past few weeks. That said, let’s focus on what the crux of this Chicago Market report is about. Our LOCAL MICRO-ECONOMY. Chicago as compared to national indexes is doing well in many areas, and not so well in others. Our report focuses on the north side of Chicago with a focus on SINGLE FAMILY homes in the Fall Quarter, 2008 compared with Fall Quarter, 2007. Median Price Activity for the Third Quarter, 2008 in Chicago: Taking the Gold Coast/Loop out of the equation, median sales prices for the quarter dropped almost 14% to $412,444 down from $470,141 in 2007. If you add that area back in there is actually a 24.4% increase in median price, but that is because the single-family home median sales price had a few large transactions pushing the median price for the entire North Section up. All other areas showed a decline of median prices compared with last year with the WEST area leading the decline with an average 85% price drop on sales from $228,867 down to only $123,481. This is in large part due to the number of foreclosures leading the sales in this area. West Garfield Park led the decline in a staggering display of depreciation for the area with 5 units sold (up from only 3 in 2007) but a drop in median price from $189,000 down to a paltry $12,500, a 93% decline in median price. North Lawndale (down 78%), East Garfield Park (down 73%) and Humbolt Park (down 53%) were among the area leaders of decline in value. On the positive side, once again one of my HEAVY BULLISH neighborhoods (for condos, multi-unit or single-family investments) continues to be Lakeview in the LAKESHORE area. Median Prices saw a whopping 15% INCREASE from $1,041,250 up to $1,200,000 (average prices too saw an increase up 13%). Rogers Park too saw an unexpected increase in median price single-family homes up 11% from the previous quarter with a median sales price of $456,000. The bad news there was it took an increased market time average of 279 days UP 862% from 2007’s short 29 day market average. The leading declining area for the quarter was Uptown , West Ridge and Lincoln Square (down 21%, 18% and 17% ) for the area. Overall however, the Lakeshore section was down 5% for the quarter. Very little good news for the NORTHWEST section with the area prices down 18% from a median sale price of $387,450 to $329,357. The good news was the area saw good sales volume in units (there are deals to be had). The NORTH CENTRAL section saw Avondale and Albany Park leading area decliners down 30% and 23% but West Town (Wicker Park/Ukranian Village) saw a 5% increase in median price up to $727,000 for a median price home up from $690,000 last year. Bucktown/Logan Square too saw a slight uptick in median prices to $693,000 from $670,000 last year (average prices jumped 15% to $804,804 from $702,666 last year). Unit Activity: Total units sold is down only 70 units across the North Section (-8.5%). The NORTHWEST section of the city is only showing 3% less units sold down from 296 to 286. In that same section, Norwood Park saw a 15% jump in sales from 54 units up to 62 and Dunning saw a significant uptick from 56 units sold in 2007 to 70 this quarter, 2008. However, some losers on units sold were Edison Park with a whopping 48% decline in units sold down to 14 units from 27 in 2007 and Jefferson Park down almost 30% from 45 units to only 32 this past quarter. Moving to the CENTRAL area, Avondale saw a whopping 183 increase in units sold up from 6 in 2007 to 17 in 2008 but the area saw an overall decline of 5% for the quarter. The WEST section saw an overall drop of 12% but areas like Belmont Cragin and Humbolt Park where single-family homes abound saw significant drops in unit volume down 30% and 13% respectively. The NORTH section dropped from 179 units to 170 however, the big news there is Avondale (while median prices are down 30%) saw a 183% increase in units sold from 6 to 17 with people most likely taking advantage of the buyers market and finding those deals which are out there. Summaries are for losers. We already know there are pockets (and even pockets within the pockets we are reporting) where there are signs of growth in this dismal market. Overall for the City on the North section market times were longer (up 27.46%) to 185 days with no one area really better than the other. Uptown was the only neighborhood that saw an average market time below 100 at 93 days (down 36% from 2007). However, taking the skewed Gold Coast out of the microscope we can get a better glimpse of the actual numbers for the quarter. Total units sold were down 7.7% from 870 to 808. The median sales price dropped almost 14% with a few exceptions such as Uptown, Bucktown/Logan Square and West Town/Wicker Park which all showed a positive gain in median sales price compared to 3rd quarter 2007. If we do add the Gold Coast back in to the report we are really looking at a very positive gain in median prices for the quarter up 24.39%.

Beware of summaries. They are for losers. Beware of the pessimists or the optimists.

Look for the micro-economist in your neighborhood.

Chicago's Quarterly Housing Market Report

The latest Chicago Home BUZZ report has almost been completed (just awaiting final few weeks of the year) but the results are staggering. The overall decrease from 2006 to 2007 in the fourth quarter was over 130% decrease in total sales volume from just one year ago.

Some of the leading declines in the City of Chicago included the Bucktown/Logan Square (60647) neighborhoods where there was an almost 300% decrease in single-family (detached) home sales from $32,898,835 in total sales in 2006 down to only $8,214,800 for the fourth quarter (2007). The Hyde Park neighborhood (60619) saw single-family homes drop from $3.6M down to under $1M in sales, down 287%.

Rogers Park condominiums saw only 45 sales last quarter, an over 230% decrease from the prior years 149 units.

The suburbs saw some areas with even worse showings including single-family sales in Highland Park where only four homes sold last quarter totaling $1,753,600 in sales down over a whopping 400% from the $8,888,000 last year.

Over all total sales volume for the quarter was $1.5 billion down over 130% from the $3.5 billions last year.

For more information and a free quarterly update of your neighborhood visit our Chicago HOME BUZZ page at http://www.chicagohomebuzz.com and see all the data and statistics.

If you'd like an Interactive Market Update of your neighborhood request a Market Snapshot

Finally, if you'd like us to mail you a copy of the Chicago Home Buzz report quarterly just drop us a line 

Stay tuned for more....

Average, Not Speculative, Buyers Moving Market

The stories are similar across the country. More homes for sale and fewer people buying. The National Association of Realtors reports sales of existing homes fell for the fourth straight month.

David Hanna is the treasurer for the Chicago Association of Realtors.

"Overall, the market has just gotten back to a pace where it's more about the average person going out and buying a home, and that's what's driving our market today versus the investment activity that we were seeing before," said Hanna.

The American dream of buying a home isn't as easy as in some Chicago communities. Geoff Smith is the research director for the Woodstock Institute where they track financial services in Chicago's minority communities. He says foreclosures have gone up 50 percent since last year and he says that only makes it harder for low income families trying to buy or keep a home.

"It's going to be more difficult for borrowers who are having problems with their mortgage to refinance their loan because credit terms are going to be more restrictive. It's going to be more difficult for them to sell their homes because there is a much larger supply of homes on the market," said Smith.

In addition to sub-prime lenders aggressively marketing their mortgages to those who couldn't afford them, sometimes a job cutback or illness may put homeowners behind in payments. If that happens, housing experts recommend calling the lender immediately to work out some arrangement to change terms or work out a way to get up to date.

May home sales in Chicago down almost 21%

Home sales in the Chicago area plummeted 20.7% last month compared with May 2006, according to the Illinois Assn. of Realtors.

A total of 9,750 single-family homes and condominiums were sold in the nine-county Chicago area last month, with the median home price rising 1.2% from the year-earlier period to $252,388. The biggest drop in sales last month occurred in outlying DeKalb, Grundy and McHenry counties. Sales in Cook County fell 20.1%.

Through May, sales in the nine-county area were down 17.4% from last year to 38,423, according to the association.

The home-sales figures were more grim nationwide.

Sales of existing homes fell in May to the lowest level in four years while the median home price dropped for a record 10th consecutive month.

The National Assn. of Realtors reported that sales of existing single-family homes and condominiums dropped by 0.3% to 5.99 million in May, the slowest sales pace since June of 2003.

The median price of a home sold last month dropped to $223,700, down 2.1% from a year ago. It marked the 10th straight price decline compared with a year ago, the longest stretch of weakness on record.

The sales decline reflected weakness in the South, where sales dropped by 3.4%, and the West, where sales were down by 0.8%. Sales actually showed strength in the Northeast, rising by 5.8%, and the Midwest, where they were up 0.7%. In a troubling sign for the future, the inventory of unsold homes rose by 5% to 4.43 million units in May, a level that would take 8.9 months to clear out at the May sales pace. That is the highest inventory level since the last deep slump in housing in 1992.

Analysts said housing is being hurt by high inventories and the recent crisis in subprime mortgages, which has caused lenders to tighten their standards, making it harder for potential buyers to qualify for loans.

They said all of the housing troubles seem to be causing a crisis in confidence, making people delay decisions to buy homes.

"I think psychological factors are currently the biggest drag on the housing market, in addition to a disruption from tighter credit for subprime borrowers," said Lawrence Yun, senior economist with the Realtors.

The current slump in housing is the worst since the 1989-92 downturn. It is occurring after a prolonged boom that saw sales of new and existing homes set new records for five consecutive years.

Analysts believe that the median home price, the midpoint where half the homes sold for more and half for less, will continue falling until builders move further to cut back on production of new homes coming on the market.

The Realtors are predicting that the median home price will decline by 1.3% this year while sales are forecast to drop by 4.6%. It would be the first annual price decline in four decades of record-keeping.

Another potential problem is mortgage rates, which have been trending higher in recent weeks although they still remain below their historical averages.

According to Freddie Mac, the average commitment rate for 30-year mortgages was 6.26% in May, up from 6.18% in April.

(From AP, staff)

Home sales fall even faster in 1st quarter

No bottom in sight as new-home slide accelerates


Dashing hopes that the housing slump would soon bottom out, new-home sales in the Chicago area fell even faster in the first quarter as the market meltdown spread from the suburbs to the city.

Residential developers in the Chicago area sold 5,341 homes in the quarter, down 35% from a year earlier and the weakest showing in more than 11 years, according to a report by Tracy Cross & Associates Inc., a Schaumburg-based real estate consulting firm. City sales, which held up better than the suburban market last year, plummeted to 1,170 units, a 44% drop from the year-earlier period and the lowest volume in 15 quarters.

"Everybody was waiting for spring," when buyers re-emerge, but "it just didn't come," says Tracy Cross, president of the firm. "This is definitely the steepest downturn we've seen" since the early 1980s.

Recession is rippling through the homebuilding industry, one of the area's biggest employers, with nearly 285,000 workers, from architects to carpenters. Contractors and developers have slashed payrolls and stopped building houses on "spec," meaning before finding a buyer. Many are cutting prices to goose demand, and the median sale price for single-family homes fell 1.7% to $299,470, the report shows.

Experts predicted the new-home market would hit bottom this spring after six straight quarters of falling sales. But recovery now appears further away, particularly in the city, where developers continue to build despite the precipitous drop in sales.

"We've seen continued softening in April," says Dan Star, Illinois division president for Dallas-based Centex Corp., which sold 1,150 homes in the Chicago area last year. "Traffic is down. Contracts are down. I think this will go on for another six months or year or longer."

Centex's local workforce is about half the size it was at the peak of the housing boom in 2005, when it employed "well over" 200 people, Mr. Star says. The company's Chicago-area sales in the most recent quarter were roughly flat, he says, declining to disclose specific sales or employment figures.

Demand started falling in 2005 as rising interest rates, combined with lofty prices, put homes out of reach for many buyers. Builders are likely feeling the after-effects of the ultra-low interest rates that drew large numbers of buyers into the market earlier in the decade but left little demand for later years. Mr. Cross estimates that as many as 7,000 local apartment renters a year became buyers during the boom, a number close to zero now.

Recent turmoil in the subprime lending market also may be crimping demand, as tighter lending standards make it harder for people to finance home purchases, Mr. Star says. Compounding those woes is the growing reluctance of consumers to buy homes in a declining market.

The first-quarter sales decline was the sharpest since the downturn began, according to Tracy Cross. On a seasonally adjusted annualized basis, sales slid to 18,927 units, down 26% from 22,226 in the previous quarter and 46% from the peak of 35,264 in second-quarter 2005.

As suburban sales tumbled last year, the city held up relatively well, logging its second-best year ever. That changed in the first quarter, when city sales fell 44% vs. 32% in the suburbs.

The supply of unsold condominiums in downtown high-rises under construction is growing even as demand is declining. Speculators — investors who buy condos to flip them for quick profit — fueled the boom but have all but disappeared from the market. And developers are likely to face stiff competition from the resale market, as thousands of owners of recently built condos put their units back up for sale, Mr. Cross says.

"You should see continued erosion in the city," he says.

The Chicago Home Buzz is already printed and mailed and the stats in our report shows a 35% reduction in sales compared to ehe previous quarter. For a copy of our CHB report email me!

©2007 by Crain Communications Inc

Heading in the Right Direction

Monthly Home Sales Reach 7-Month High

Sales of existing homes rose in January, reaching the highest level in seven months, according to the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®.

Total existing-home sales — including single family, townhomes, condominiums, and co-ops — increased 3 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.46 million units in January from an upwardly revised pace of 6.27 million in December. Sales were 4.3 percent below the 6.75 million-unit level in January 2006.

David Lereah, NAR’s chief economist, says observers shouldn’t overreact to the sales gain or to other short-term effects. “Although we’re expecting existing-home sales to gradually rise this year, and buyers are responding to the price correction, some unusually warm weather helped boost sales in January,” he says.

“On the flip side, the winter storms that disrupted so much of the country in February could negatively impact the housing market. “Although the data is seasonally adjusted, these weather events are unusually large — many transaction closings were postponed in February, and home shopping was essentially shut down for about a week in many areas,” he says. “We shouldn’t be surprised to see a near-term sales dip, but that will be followed by a continuing recovery in home sales.”

Inventories Drop

Total housing inventory levels rose 2.9 percent at the end of January to 3.55 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 6.6-month supply at the current sales pace — unchanged from the revised December level. Supplies peaked at 7.4 months in October 2006.“Inventories are looking better, but price softness should continue until spring when the market is expected to become more balanced,” Lereah says.What Happened RegionallyHere’s a breakdown of home sales by region:

West Coast: Existing-home sales in the West rose 5.6 percent to an annual pace of 1.32 million in January but were 9.6 percent lower than a year ago. The median price in the West was $321,300, down 4.6 percent from January 2006.

Midwest: Existing-home sales increased 4.8 percent in January to a level of 1.53 million, and were 0.6 percent lower than January 2006. The median price in the Midwest was $162,600, which is 3.5 percent below a year ago.

South: Existing-home sales in the South rose 2 percent to an annual sales rate of 2.54 million in January, but were 7.3 percent below a year ago. The median price in the South was $174,600, which is 1.7 percent below January 2006.

Northeast: Existing-home sales in the Northeast were at a level of 1.07 million in January, unchanged from December, and were 5.9 percent higher than January 2006. The median existing-home price in the Northeast was $260,700, down 1.2 percent from a year earlier.

National Single-family and Condo Home Sales

Single-family home sales rose 3.5 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.69 million in January from an upwardly revised 5.50 million in December. But that still accounts for 4.2 percent below the 5.94 million-unit level in January 2006. The median existing single-family home price was $209,200 in January, down 3.5 percent from a year earlier.Existing condominium and cooperative housing sales slipped 0.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 767,000 units in January from a downwardly revised pace of 768,000 in December. Last month’s sales activity was 5.7 percent below the 813,000-unit pace in January 2006.The median existing condo price was $222,200 in January, up 0.5 percent from a year ago.

NAR President: Market is Stabilizing

The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $210,600 in January, down 3.1 percent from January 2006 when the median was $217,400. The median is a typical market price where half of the homes sold for more and half sold for less.

NAR President Pat Vredevoogd Combs, from Grand Rapids, Mich., says a broader view shows the housing market stabilizing. “The market is trending up from its low last fall, and that is important in restoring confidence to buyers who’ve been on the sidelines,” Combs says. “Since buyers can find more favorable terms, and they are looking for a place to call home for some years to come, getting into the market now makes sense. It’s a choice many didn’t have during the boom period of bidding wars in much of the country.”

source— REALTOR® Magazine Online